Phillies’ Max Kepler Poised for Breakout in Season Opener Against Giants

PHILADELPHIA, Pa. — Max Kepler is set to take the field as the Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants today in their season opener at Citizens Bank Park, aiming to turn the page on a disappointing end to the previous season.

The Phillies added outfielder Kepler during the offseason, looking to bolster their lineup. Though not the left-handed slugger fans anticipated after Juan Soto signed elsewhere, club president Dave Dombrowski believes in Kepler’s potential. Previously, Kepler has shown flashes of brilliance, producing seasons in which his OPS+ exceeded the league average by 20 points or more. This includes a 36-home run campaign in 2019 and 24 homers last season.

Overall, Kepler’s career has seen him struggle with consistency, ending with an OPS+ below 100 in six of his eight full seasons. The Phillies aim to see him replicate his numbers from the 2023 season, hoping he can regain his 2019 form. While current trends may not reflect elite performance—Kepler is slashing .245/.333/.377—his expected metrics suggest room for significant improvement. His expected batting average is .300, with an expected slugging percentage of .423.

Furthermore, his on-base percentage this season mirrors those of his prior successful years, with figures of .336 in 2019 and .332 in 2023, while his walk rate of 11.7% is a career best. His hard-hit percentage stands at 46.5%, a figure he has surpassed sparingly in past seasons.

However, the outfielder is currently experiencing a ground-ball rate of 51.2%, the highest in his career, alongside a fly-ball percentage of just 27.9%, marking a low point. Kepler has altered his swing this offseason, making adjustments with the help of the coaching staff, but these changes may take time to yield optimal results.

If Kepler can elevate the ball while maintaining his hard-hit rate, he could have a standout season ahead. Should he fail to adapt, his anticipated metrics might not translate into tangible on-field success. The Phillies and their fans remain hopeful he can become the elite outfielder they’ve been seeking.

The game begins at 6:45 p.m. ET, as the Phillies seek to capitalize on their home advantage. They face the Giants, who are dealing with their own injury issues, including an uncertain status for designated hitter Jerar Encarnacion. Landen Roupp is projected to be the starting pitcher for San Francisco.

As the Phillies embark on the 2025 season amid high expectations following last year’s playoff shortcomings, maximizing the contributions of players like Kepler will be crucial. With ambitions for a deep postseason run, the team is poised to deliver an exciting season.