Pumas UNAM Favored in Crucial Liga MX Playoff Clash Against Toluca

MEXICO CITY, Mexico — Pumas UNAM will host Deportivo Toluca FC in a pivotal Liga MX playoff matchup on Wednesday, January 29, 2025, at Estadio Olímpico Universitario. The game, set to kick off at 10:05 PM ET, comes as Pumas look to capitalize on their recent form, while Toluca aims to rebound from a loss to Mazatlán FC.

Pumas UNAM enters the match with a slight edge, according to predictive models, which give them a 38.7% chance of victory. Toluca trails closely with a 34.9% win probability, while a draw is projected at 26.5%. The predicted scoreline favors Pumas 2-1, reflecting their stronger offensive and defensive metrics this season.

Statistically, Pumas UNAM has scored 4 goals this season, ranking 11th in the league, while Toluca sits 4th with 6 goals. Defensively, Pumas have allowed 4 goals (7th in the league), compared to Toluca’s 5 goals conceded (10th). Pumas also hold a slight edge in shots taken (29 vs. 44) and opponent shots faced (26 vs. 26).

Key players to watch include Pumas’ Jorge Antonio Ruvalcaba Castro, who has 1 goal in 1 game, and Toluca’s Alexis Vega, who has 2 goals and 3 assists in 3 matches. Pumas have won 33.3% of their games as favorites this season, while Toluca faces their first underdog status of the campaign.

Betting odds favor Pumas UNAM with a moneyline of +150, while Toluca sits at +174. The over/under for total goals is set at 2.5, with a 52% chance of staying under, according to simulations.

“Our team has simulated the outcome of Wednesday’s Pumas UNAM-Toluca game 10,000 times,” said Dave Garofolo from Dimers. “Taking into account the most current updates and numerous additional factors, our prediction gives Pumas UNAM a 38.7% chance of winning, Toluca a 34.9% chance, and a 26.5% chance of a draw.”

The most likely final score, based on simulations, is a 1-1 draw (12.6% probability), followed by a 1-0 Pumas victory (10%) and a 0-1 Toluca win (9.4%). Fans can expect a tightly contested match as both teams vie for a crucial playoff advantage.