Top Seed Aryna Sabalenka Faces Peyton Stearns in Madrid Open Showdown

Madrid, Spain – World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on No. 44 Peyton Stearns in the Round of 16 at the Mutua Madrid Open on Monday, April 28, 2025. Sabalenka, the favorite with odds of -649, faces Stearns, who is considered the underdog at +425.

The match is set against a backdrop of competing narratives. Sabalenka is highly motivated as she approaches this match after narrowly missing out on victory in last year’s tournament. During her previous match on Sunday, she defeated Elise Mertens in three sets, coming back from a set down to win 3-6, 6-2, 6-1.

In contrast, Stearns advanced to this round with a commanding win over qualifier Rebeka Masarova, finishing 6-2, 6-0. At just 23 years old, Stearns is making a name for herself, boasting notable victories against players like Ons Jabeur and Madison Keys.

Historically, Sabalenka has outperformed Stearns, leading their head-to-head record 1-0. Their only prior encounter was at Indian Wells in 2024, where Sabalenka overcame a challenging match to win in a deciding tiebreak.

As the match approaches, Sabalenka’s strong baseline game and ability to generate power will be crucial. She has been dominant throughout the 2025 season, reaching five finals and securing two titles. On the other hand, Stearns may look to take control of the net early, which could catch Sabalenka off guard.

Tennis odds reflect Sabalenka’s strong likelihood of winning, with an implied probability of 86.6% based on the moneyline. The stage is set for an exciting clash of styles, with both players looking to advance.

The winner will face either Marta Kostyuk or Anastasia Potapova in the quarterfinals.