2024-25 UEFA Europa League Predictions: Key Contenders and Changes

The UEFA Europa League returns for the 2024-25 season with notable changes to its format and structure, expanding from 32 to 36 teams. This new format sees the elimination of the traditional group stage in favor of a league phase, where each team plays eight matches and is placed in a single, comprehensive 36-team table. The shift mirrors a similar format change in the UEFA Champions League.

Unlike previous iterations, the participating 36 teams are fixed for the duration of the competition, eliminating the previous safety net that allowed teams falling from the Champions League to participate in the Europa League. This change also impacts the Europa Conference League, ensuring continuity and integrity across UEFA’s tournaments.

Topping the predictions for the 2024-25 season, as per the Opta supercomputer, is FC Porto, with a 17.8% chance of lifting the trophy. The Portuguese club, historically successful in European competitions, is managed by Vitor Bruno, who continues the legacy of his predecessor, Sérgio Conceição. Porto’s stellar record in Europe includes victories in the UEFA Cup in 2003 and the Europa League in 2011.

Athletic Club follows as second favorite, predicted to win in 10.9% of simulations. Although they have not won the competition before, Athletic has reached the final twice and enjoys the advantage of potentially playing the final at their home stadium, San Mamés, under the guidance of head coach Ernesto Valverde.

Surprisingly, Slavia Prague ranks third in Opta’s predictions, winning in 9.6% of scenarios. The Czech side has been a regular presence in European tournaments in recent years and is considered a strong contender this season, despite not having a vast European trophy cabinet.

Tottenham Hotspur is also a significant contender, winning in 8.6% of simulations. Under manager Ange Postecoglou, Spurs aim to end their 16-year trophy drought and capitalize on a favorable run of fixtures in both the Europa League and domestic competitions.

Roma, another strong competitor, won their second European trophy in 8.2% of the projections. Despite a challenging start to their domestic season, Roma has a promising record in recent European competitions, including a Europa Conference League win in 2021-22.

Further predictions from Opta place Manchester United as sixth favorites, with a 7.1% chance of victory. Despite possessing one of the most formidable squads, United’s performance has been inconsistent under coach Erik ten Hag.

Other notable mentions include Lazio, Fenerbahce under José Mourinho, Real Sociedad, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Nice, each possessing a 3% or higher chance of winning the Europa League this season.