West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats: Preview and Predictions for Week 11

The West Virginia Mountaineers and the Cincinnati Bearcats are set to face off on Saturday, November 9, 2024, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. This matchup marks a significant encounter between two teams with differing recent performances. The game is scheduled to kick off at 12 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1[2].

Cincinnati, with a 5-3 overall record and 3-2 in conference play, is looking to secure bowl eligibility for the first time under head coach Scott Satterfield. A win against West Virginia would achieve this milestone. The Bearcats have been strong against the spread this year, going 4-1-1 in their last six contests, although they have historically struggled against the Mountaineers, with West Virginia holding a 17-3-1 series lead[1][4].

West Virginia, currently 4-4 overall and 3-2 in conference play, is facing several challenges. Quarterback Garrett Greene is listed as doubtful, which means Nicco Marchiol is expected to make his second straight start. Marchiol performed well in his last outing against Arizona, completing 18 of 22 passes for 181 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. However, the Mountaineers’ defense has been a concern, ranking 83rd in total defense, 95th in scoring defense, and 80th in defensive success rate. The team recently replaced their defensive coordinator with longtime linebackers coach Jeff Koonz in an effort to improve their defensive performance[1][4].

Statistically, Cincinnati’s defense is particularly strong against the run, ranking 15th in the country in EPA per rush, which is a key aspect of West Virginia’s offense. On the other hand, the Bearcats’ offense is 30th in EPA per dropback, exploiting a vulnerability in West Virginia’s pass defense. These matchups suggest that Cincinnati has a favorable edge in this game[1][4].

The betting odds reflect this analysis, with Cincinnati favored by 4.5 points and a moneyline of -185 compared to West Virginia’s +154. The over/under is set at 55 points, though trends suggest the under might be a safer bet given the defensive strengths of both teams[1][4].

Predictions lean towards Cincinnati winning and covering the spread, with a projected score of Cincinnati 31, West Virginia 23[1][4].