Wheat Futures Drop Amid Strong Dollar and Trade Updates

CHICAGO, Ill. – Wheat futures fell in overnight trading on concerns about demand for U.S. agricultural goods as the dollar strengthened by 0.5% against a basket of foreign currencies. A stronger greenback generally makes U.S. exports less competitive in global markets.

Investors are also keenly observing the outcomes of a telephone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which seeks a path toward peace following the ongoing conflict that began with Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Following the call, Trump characterized the meeting as “very good,” while Zelenskyy described it as positive. Meanwhile, Ukraine is projected to be the fifth-largest wheat exporter for the 2024-2025 marketing year, with upcoming exports forecasted at 15.5 million metric tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This figure is a decrease from an earlier estimate of 16 million metric tons and from 18.6 million tons shipped the previous year.

In the markets, wheat futures for May delivery dropped 5 cents to $5.58 ½ per bushel, and Kansas City futures lost 6 cents, settling at $5.88 ¾ per bushel. In contrast, corn futures experienced a slight uptick, rising ¼ cent to $4.62 ¼ per bushel, while soybeans for May delivery decreased by 4 cents to $10.04 ¼ per bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Notably, the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) observed National Agriculture Trade Day to highlight the critical role agricultural trade plays in boosting state economies and sustaining farmers and ranchers. “This day underscores the need for policies that expand market opportunities and maintain competitiveness in U.S. agriculture,” NASDA stated.

The agriculture, food, and related industries contribute 5.5% to the U.S. gross domestic product and account for over 10% of employment in the sector, as reported by NDSA. State departments of agriculture are vital in promoting U.S. products both domestically and internationally.

In related legislative action, South Dakota Representative Dusty Johnson introduced a House Resolution advocating for Congress and the administration to pursue effective food and agricultural trade policies for the United States.

Weather conditions have raised concerns for several states, including North Dakota, Nebraska, and western Kansas, leading to red-flag warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Strong winds are anticipated, reaching 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in North Dakota and South Dakota, while relative humidity is expected to drop to around 20%. In western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma and Texas, wind gusts could hit up to 45 mph, creating elevated fire danger as humidity dips as low as 8%.

“Elevated fire danger is expected; fires will catch and spread rapidly and erratically,” the National Weather Service cautioned.