The Biggest Upsets in VFL/AFL Grand Final History

The Brisbane Lions are set to face the Sydney Swans in this Saturday’s AFL grand final, marking a historic matchup between two teams with origins in the Victorian Football League (VFL). Having reached the final from fifth place on the ladder, the Lions have bypassed the top four privileges, such as a rest week or a second chance, making their journey notably challenging. Despite the Swans finishing as minor premiers, the Lions’ task, while formidable, is not deemed impossible considering the history of upsets in men’s VFL/AFL grand finals.

Upsets in grand finals are measured through various criteria, beyond just sports betting odds. These factors include the respective ladder positions of opposing teams, the number of years since a team’s last premiership win, the age and experience of the players, and the historical performance of a team at the venue or against their opponent. Analysts often accord greater importance to ladder positions entering the finals as it reflects the team’s performance consistency throughout the season.

Among the most notable upsets in VFL/AFL history is the 1993 grand final where Essendon, nicknamed the “Baby Bombers,” defeated Carlton despite only finishing eighth in the previous season. The youthful team, averaging 24 years of age, overcame significant odds against a more experienced Carlton side.

The 2017 Richmond team’s dramatic turnaround from 13th position in 2016 to defeating Adelaide in the grand final is another remarkable upset. Adelaide was widely favored to win, having finished at the top of the ladder. Richmond’s victory was characterized by an aggressive play style involving shorter personnel, dubbed the “mosquito fleet.”

In 1972, Carlton’s victory over Richmond broke a streak of ten consecutive losses against the Tigers. Carlton implemented an unexpected strategy by repositioning players, culminating in a high-scoring grand final.

Perhaps the most significant upset occurred in 2016 when the Western Bulldogs, ending a 62-year premiership drought, triumphed over the Sydney Swans. Ranked seventh on the ladder, their victory involved defeating top teams across multiple venues, showcasing unparalleled persistence and skill.

These historical instances highlight the unpredictable nature of grand finals and serve as a reminder that even the most formidable opposition is susceptible to defeat under the right circumstances.