Cubs’ Swanson: A Potential Turnaround Despite Slow Start

CHICAGO, Ill. — As the Chicago Cubs look to find their rhythm in the 2025 season, shortstop Dansby Swanson has sparked conversations about his potential despite a rocky start. Early in April, his batting average stands at .211 with a .281 on-base percentage, but some analysts believe there’s more to his game than his current numbers suggest.

After a promising performance in 2023, where he boasted a 139 wRC+ at the same point in the season, Swanson’s recent struggles have led fans and critics alike to question what kind of player he truly is. Known for being an above-average defensive infielder capable of hot streaks, his age-31 season raises concerns about longevity and consistency.

Despite his low batting average, stats show Swanson is indeed performing well in several key areas. His isolated power of .263 is a significant increase from his previous high of .201 in 2021. Furthermore, his hard-hit percentage sits at an impressive 51.1%, nearly five percentage points above his career best.

“There’s been some brutal batted ball luck, as reflected in his .190 batting average on balls in play,” an anonymous scout commented. “Things will even out; the average on balls in play usually does. His slugging might decrease, but the quality of his contact cannot be overlooked.”

Many are looking closely at Swanson’s contact trends this season. In 2024, his rankings for average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and squared-up percentage were notably lower compared to this year’s performance. Specifically, he ranks 56th, 62nd, 64th, and 47th in those categories this season, showcasing significant improvement.

Interestingly, his average bat speed has decreased this season, showing 70.7 MPH, but this has not hindered his performance. His squared-up contact has jumped from 33.4% to 47.7%. The proportion of contact resulting in barrels has also surged from 15.4% to 26.2%.

“The torpedo bat seems to be the key here,” said Swanson’s hitting coach. “It allows players like Dansby to find better contact points and swing more freely.”

Statistical analysis reveals that Swanson has changed his contact strategies, increasing his swing rate against fastballs while decreasing it against off-speed pitches. This new approach aligns closely with his historical success against fastballs, further underscoring his potential for greater offensive output as the season progresses.

Yet, despite these promising indicators, the season is still young. Swanson has been the subject of cautionary tales in previous seasons, as this phase in the game often leads to inflated expectations. “We need to wait and see how this all plays out,” cautioned a senior analyst. “He could be on the verge of a significant breakthrough, or this could just be another false start.”

The Cubs are aware of the high stakes. They need Swanson to find his stride, not only for his individual performance but for the overall team dynamics. The management remains hopeful that the adjustments he is making will lead to favorable results as the months unfold and the weather warms.