Exit Polls Forecast Congress Victory in Haryana, NC-Congress Alliance Lead in J&K

The initial exit polls for the 2024 Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) elections suggest significant shifts in both states’ political landscapes, with Congress expected to secure a triumphant return in Haryana’s assembly elections. Predictively, Congress is slated to win approximately 55 of the total 90 seats, hence surpassing the majority mark of 46 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has held power in Haryana for the past decade, is anticipated to secure only about 25 seats, as reported by various exit poll agencies including People's Pulse and Matrize. Meanwhile, Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) are predicted to win a combined total of around 4 seats, with independent candidates and other parties potentially bagging 7 seats.

Haryana’s elections were held on October 5 in a single voting phase, amidst stiff competition as Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini sought to retain his position against opposition forces led by Congress figure Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Observers indicate that local issues, including allegations of corruption and governance failures under the BJP, may have swayed the electoral sentiment towards Congress. Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a prominent Congress leader, expressed confidence that Congress would achieve a “thumping majority,” citing public discontent over the BJP’s decade-long governance failures. Conversely, BJP leaders, including Haryana CM Nayab Singh Saini, remain optimistic, dismissing exit poll figures as unreliable.

Similarly, in Jammu & Kashmir, exit polls for the assembly elections, conducted in three phases throughout September and early October, highlight a possible victory for the National Conference-Congress (NC-Congress) alliance. Exodus MY India and other agencies project the alliance to take between 46 to 50 seats, which would provide a clear legislative majority. In contrast, the BJP may only secure 23 to 27 seats, despite having a strong showing in parts of the region.

Farooq Abdullah, the National Conference president, reiterated the party’s stance against forming any post-poll alliances with the BJP, emphasizing a strategic partnership with Congress aimed at countering BJP’s political narratives and policies post the bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir into union territories. This election cycle in J&K holds substantial importance as it gauges the NC-Congress coalition’s ability to mobilize support amidst ongoing regional political tensions.

The outcomes of these elections are poised to influence national politics significantly, as Haryana may witness a political shift, reflecting voter attitudes towards issues like unemployment, education, and governance. In contrast, J&K’s results may reveal the impact of alliance strategies in mitigating BJP’s influence, reflecting broader political sentiments and future coalition dynamics. Final results will be confirmed when votes are officially counted on October 8.