NOAA Updates 2025 Hurricane Season Outlook, Storm Predictions Remain High

MIAMI, Fla. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, indicating it remains on track for an above-average year. Forecasters now predict a total of 13 to 18 named storms, of which between 5 and 9 could become hurricanes.

This update reflects a slight decrease in the chances for an above-average season, now estimated at 50%, down from 60%. The forecast, which spans from June 1 through November 30, includes four named storms that have formed so far this season.

“All of the elements we anticipated at the start of the season are still in play,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. He notes that factors such as warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear continue to favor storm formation.

Currently, meteorologist Jim Weber is monitoring three tropical systems, including a post-tropical storm named Dexter and Invest 96L, which has a 60% chance of developing over the next seven days. “We’re keeping an eye on these systems, but none pose immediate issues for the U.S.,” Weber stated.

The forecast suggests that the bulk of named storms typically forms in late summer and fall, aligning with the peak of sea surface temperatures during this period. Historically, the peak of the hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October, with the highest activity observed around September 10.

NOAA emphasizes the importance of being prepared ahead of severe weather events. As Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm cautions, “This report serves as a call to action for everyone to have a plan in place.”

So far this season, Tropical Storm Chantal has made landfall, impacting South Carolina on July 6. NOAA’s predictions for hurricane activity are a reminder that preparation can save lives and property in the event of a significant storm.