Union Voter Preferences in the 2024 Presidential Election

In the ongoing presidential race, both major political parties are intensifying their efforts to court voters affiliated with labor unions, a demographic traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party. This move highlights the strategic importance of union voters in deciding the outcome of the 2024 election.

Recent data from Pew Research Center indicates that approximately 59% of union members identify or lean towards the Democratic Party, while 39% are inclined towards the Republican Party. This division presents a critical opportunity for both parties, especially in a closely contested election.

According to Pew Research, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have historically garnered significant support from unions due to their staunch advocacy for labor rights. Despite this, a September 2024 survey reveals that only half of union voters expressed definite support for Harris, contrasting with 43% who favored former President Donald Trump. The remainder considered third-party candidates.

The significance of labor unions in American workplaces has diminished over the years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the percentage of American workers represented by unions dropped from 20.1% in 1983 to only 10.0% in 2023. Union membership remains higher in the public sector at 32.5%, compared to 6.0% in the private sector.

Regionally, unionization rates fluctuate, with the Southeast reporting notably low numbers, such as 3.1% in North Carolina and 2.9% in South Carolina. This contrasts sharply with states like New York and Hawaii, where unionization is significantly higher at 22.0% and 23.7%, respectively.

The potential impact of declining union membership on society is a concern for many, with 54% of Americans viewing it as detrimental to the country and 59% believing it negatively affects workers, as noted in Pew’s surveys. Democrats more frequently express concern over this decline compared to their Republican counterparts.

In terms of policy preference, union-affiliated voters tend to believe that Kamala Harris would enact policies more beneficial to their interests compared to Donald Trump. Approximately 43% of union voters expressed confidence in Harris’s policies improving their conditions versus 26% for Trump. Conversely, 46% believe Trump’s policies could worsen their situation.

Overall, a majority of Americans, 55%, perceive labor unions as having a positive impact on the nation, although there is significant partisan variation in this sentiment. Among union members, this approval climbs to 74% compared to 53% among those without union affiliations, according to Pew Research’s findings.