OECD Warns of Slow Global Growth Amid Trade Tariffs and Uncertainty

PARIS, France — The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned on September 23, 2025, about slowing global economic growth due to rising U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainties. The OECD estimates that global growth will decrease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 2.9% in 2026.

The report highlights that while the global economy displayed resilience in the first half of 2025, risks such as increased trade barriers and geopolitical factors pose significant challenges. U.S. GDP growth is predicted to fall to 1.8% in 2025 and further to 1.5% in 2026. Similarly, the euro area is expected to see growth decline to 1.2% in 2025, dropping to 1.0% the following year. China‘s growth is projected to ease to 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann noted, “The global economy has remained resilient, but the full effects of higher tariffs and policy uncertainty have yet to be felt.” He emphasized the need for governments to foster international cooperation to achieve fairer trade agreements.

The OECD also raised concerns about the potential for increased bilateral tariffs on imported goods, particularly affecting sectors like pharmaceuticals and semi-conductors. The implementation of higher tariffs could lead to elevated costs and decreased consumer confidence.

Furthermore, Cormann emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline to ensure long-term debt sustainability amid rising budgetary pressures. He stressed the necessity for central banks to remain vigilant in managing inflation rates as economic growth moderates.

The OECD report indicated that efforts to avoid further trade fragmentation must include reforms enhancing supply chain security while promoting open markets. “Stronger structural reform efforts will be key to durably improving living standards,” said OECD chief economist Álvaro Santos Pereira.