BigBear.ai Sees Stock Surge Amid Volatility in AI Market

ASHBURN, Va. — BigBear.ai stock surged by 52.6% in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s 5.5% increase. Despite market fluctuations, investor interest in artificial intelligence (AI) software continues to drive growth.

Throughout early 2025, BigBear.ai experienced notable volatility, particularly in January, followed by a considerable rally in February. Investors noted strong performance linked to the defense sector’s demand for AI capabilities, which further propelled BigBear.ai’s stock.

The company’s stock remains under pressure from its underwhelming quarterly reports this year. In March, BigBear.ai announced a fourth-quarter loss of $0.43 per share, indicating an 8% year-over-year revenue increase to $43.8 million, falling short of analyst expectations.

In May, the firm reported disappointing results for the first quarter with revenues of $34.8 million and a loss of $0.25 per share. Analysts had projected higher sales of $36.3 million and a smaller loss. Despite these setbacks, the stock rebounded as investors remained optimistic about the potential within the defense AI sector.

Currently, BigBear.ai’s share price has increased about 5% in July. Projections suggest annual sales between $160 million and $180 million, reflecting a growth estimate of 7.5% from $158.2 million recorded last year. With a market cap near $2.1 billion, the company is valued at approximately 12.4 times this year’s anticipated sales.

Industry analysts remain cautiously optimistic, yet caution that the stock could be seen as a risky investment based on its current valuation compared to its growth rate.