China’s Control of Taiwan: A Misjudged Threat to U.S. Security

Taipei, Taiwan — Recent analyses challenge the long-held belief that a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would pose a direct threat to U.S. national security. Observers argue that while Taiwan holds strategic importance for Beijing, its control would not enhance China‘s military capabilities beyond the first island chain.

Many experts contend that should China attack Taiwan, it may ironically solidify U.S. alliances in the Asia-Pacific region rather than weaken them. U.S. allies such as Japan and the Philippines are likely to strengthen their defense postures in response to perceived threats, pushing them closer to Washington rather than leading them to appease Beijing.

Chinese intentions toward Taiwan are rooted in historical nationalism rather than a broader agenda for regional hegemony, analysts assert. Unlike the U.S.’s strategic interests in the region, the importance of Taiwan to American defense efforts is considered limited.

Statements by U.S. officials, like those made by Ely Ratner during the Biden administration, underscore Taiwan’s supposed role as a keystone in regional security. However, critics argue such views mirror outdated Cold War thinking and overlook modern dynamics. The conventional wisdom posits Taiwan as a critical defense asset, yet many military experts believe its loss would not substantially jeopardize U.S. security commitments.

The concern that allies like Japan and the Philippines would falter in their commitments is dismissed as flawed reasoning. Historical parallels drawn from Vietnam are often seen as inapplicable, as today’s geopolitical landscape presents different stakes and interests. Rather than trembling at a loss in Taiwan, allies could reevaluate their own defense strategies and bolster their military capabilities.

Current military assessments suggest that even with control over Taiwan, China’s ability to project power into the broader Pacific remains constrained by geography and existing defense alliances. Military experts emphasize that any gains in power through Taiwan would be marginal and that China’s military threats dissipate with distance.

For U.S. decision-makers, the impending possibility of a military confrontation over Taiwan might appear daunting. However, numerous analysts argue that a shift in focus to a broader strategic framework could result in a more robust and less confrontational U.S. position in the region. Reacting to all crises through defense commitments could lead to miscalculations and overwhelming costs.

The U.S. must approach the Taiwan situation with an acknowledgment of realistic limits on its military involvement. Embracing a posture that encourages regional allies to build self-reliance could reduce tensions, rather than exacerbate them. Thus, the narrative of Taiwan as a “trampoline” for Chinese militaristic expansion appears increasingly unsupported by current geopolitical realities.

Ultimately, the argument emerges that China can conquer Taiwan, yet that does not translate into a tangible threat against U.S. national interests. By reassessing how to engage with Taiwan, the U.S. could navigate the challenges presented by an assertive China while ensuring regional stability without overextending its defense commitments.