Chipotle Tops Earnings Estimates but Disappoints with 2025 Sales Forecast

NEW YORK CITY, N.Y. — Chipotle Mexican Grill reported strong fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, driven by rising restaurant traffic, but its 2025 same-store sales forecast fell short of Wall Street expectations, causing shares to drop more than 3% in extended trading.

The company posted net income of $331.8 million, or 24 cents per share, up from $282.1 million, or 20 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items such as restaurant impairment charges and legal costs, Chipotle earned 25 cents per share, surpassing analysts’ estimates of 24 cents per share, according to LSEG.

Net sales climbed 13.1% to $2.85 billion, while same-store sales rose 5.4%, narrowly missing StreetAccount estimates of 5.7% growth. Transactions increased 4% during the quarter, continuing a trend of higher traffic that has outpaced the broader restaurant industry.

“Chipotle has consistently outperformed the industry, even as many consumers cut back on dining out to save money,” said a company spokesperson. The chain has benefited from limited-time offerings like its Smoked Brisket, which carries a higher price point than other menu items.

During the quarter, Chipotle opened 120 new restaurants, including its first international licensed location in Kuwait, marking its first expansion into a new country in a decade. The company plans to open between 315 and 345 new locations in 2025, with more than 80% featuring a “Chipotlane” for digital orders.

However, Chipotle’s projection of low- to mid-single-digit same-store sales growth for 2025 disappointed investors, who had anticipated a 5.4% increase, according to StreetAccount estimates. The company attributed the conservative forecast to macroeconomic uncertainties and shifting consumer behavior.

Despite the cautious outlook, Chipotle remains optimistic about its long-term growth strategy. “Our focus on digital innovation, menu innovation, and international expansion positions us well for the future,” said CEO Brian Niccol in a statement.

Shares of Chipotle closed at $2,450.50 on Tuesday before falling in after-hours trading. The stock has gained 12% year-to-date, outperforming many competitors in the restaurant sector.