US CPI Data Release: Markets Brace for October Inflation Numbers

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on Wednesday, November 13, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This data is highly anticipated by investors globally, as it is one of the most closely tracked economic indicators[1][3].

Expectations suggest that the annual headline CPI inflation will rise to 2.6% in October, slightly higher than the 2.4% recorded in September. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to remain stable at 3.3%[2][4].

The monthly headline inflation is forecast to be in the range of 0.1% to 0.3%, with a consensus call of 0.2%. Any deviation from this range could trigger significant market movements. Similarly, the monthly core CPI is expected to remain at 0.3%[2].

The release of this data will have significant implications for the Federal Reserve‘s interest rate outlook. Recent rate cuts by the Fed, including a 50 basis point cut in September and a 25 basis point cut in November, were driven by declining inflation. However, if the October CPI data shows an unexpected increase in inflation, it could halt or slow down the Fed’s rate cut campaign[1][4].

Market analysts are also considering the potential impact of President-elect Trump‘s policies, such as tax cuts and tariffs, which could lead to higher inflation and influence the Fed’s future decisions on interest rates[1].

The US Dollar is expected to experience volatility following the CPI release, with the US Dollar Index already nearing a fresh six-month high above 106.00. The direction of the US Dollar will be closely tied to the inflation data and its implications for future interest rate decisions[2].