Ethiopia and Eritrea Tensions Rise Amid Fears of Renewed Conflict

Mekele, Ethiopia — Reports of military movements and clashes in northern Ethiopia are raising alarms about a potential new conflict. The Tigray region, which suffered a devastating civil war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal government forces, is still recovering from the violence that claimed around 600,000 lives before a peace deal in November 2022.

Residents, such as a woman from Mekele, expressed their unease. “We can’t plan anything at the moment,” she told Deutsche Welle. “We’re just trying to survive. A new war could break out tomorrow.” She highlighted the rising cost of living and the urgent need for peace.

During the earlier conflict, Eritrean troops supported Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed against the TPLF. Critics argue that without Eritrea‘s involvement in peace talks, lasting stability is uncertain. President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled Eritrea for decades, was not part of the negotiation process that ended the civil war.

Fears of renewed hostilities have increased due to political turmoil within Tigray, where the TPLF has fractured amid internal struggles. General Tadesse Werede, now leading Tigray’s interim government, urged caution and assured that there would be “no war and no provocation from Tigray’s side.” In contrast, TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael acknowledged calls from the international community for peaceful negotiations.

Residents are reportedly withdrawing money and stockpiling essentials as anxiety grows over potential conflict. “We urge all factions to work with the central government to resolve the crisis,” a Mekele resident said.

Expert Gerrit Kurtz noted that while a full-scale war may be unlikely, proxy conflicts sparked by Eritrea’s involvement could arise. “Eritrea benefits when Ethiopia is weakened,” he stated.

Recent reports suggest that Eritrea has been training armed groups in Ethiopia, including clashes involving the Fano militia. Historical tensions between the two countries add to the fragility of the situation, particularly the 1993 conflict leading to Eritrea’s independence.

Follow-up investigations by organizations like The Sentry highlight Eritrea’s role in exploiting the Tigray conflict, including patterns of looting and illicit trade that bolster its military operations.

In a recent interview, Afwerki called out Ethiopia’s aggressive rhetoric regarding a potential seizure of the Eritrean port of Assab as irrational and dangerous. “This is truly childish provocation,” he warned. Meanwhile, Abiy has cautioned Tigrayan officials against endangering peace.

The situation remains volatile as both nations prepare for possible new clashes. Analysts fear that the renewed brinkmanship could lead to dire consequences for the Horn of Africa.