The Evolution of the NBA’s 3-Point Shot: Time for Change?

BOSTON, Mass. — In summer 1979, NBA Commissioner Larry O’Brien famously stated, “I think that I shall never see a thing more lovely than a three,” after the league’s board of governors voted 15-7 to approve the 3-point line. This decision marked a significant shift in basketball, allowing shots from beyond 24 feet to be worth three points, forever altering the sport’s landscape.

The debut of the 3-point shot was a revelation, culminating on October 12, 1979, when Boston Celtics player Chris Ford made the league’s first-ever 3-pointer during a game featuring rookie Larry Bird. Fast forward to the present, and the strategy surrounding 3-pointers has evolved dramatically. Today’s players often rely on them heavily, as evidenced by a recent matchup where two leading teams combined to miss 67 3-point attempts in 48 minutes of play.

As the NBA continues to embrace the 3-ball, the league has seen an increase in shooting attempts from beyond the arc. This season, teams averaged over 75 3-point attempts per game, an increase from 70 in the previous season. Despite the increase in attempts, the success rate for 3-pointers has remained relatively stagnant, with over 64 percent of these shots still failing to find the net. Notably, missed 3s have become more common than missed 2s for the first time in NBA history.

The trend of high-volume 3-point shooting has shifted game dynamics significantly. Modern offenses tend to prioritize catch-and-shoot opportunities, with assist opportunities for 3-point shooters outpacing those for 2-point shooters. The Celtics, under head coach Joe Mazzulla, exemplify this approach, averaging 48.5 3-point attempts per game, which could set a new league record.

“I love 3-pointers. I like math,” Mazzulla said in relation to his team’s shooting strategy. The Celtics have constructed a lineup skilled at maximizing the effectiveness of 3-point attempts, yielding impressive results this season with an average of 1.11 points per made 3-pointer.

However, the surge in 3-point shooting has introduced questions about the overall quality and variety of play in today’s NBA. As missed 3s accumulate, they detract from the excitement that the long-range shot once brought to the game. Reflecting on the playoff performance of the Houston Rockets in 2018, when they missed 27 consecutive 3-pointers, highlights a growing trend of dismal shooting displays.

In light of these statistics, it becomes evident that while the 3-point shot has revolutionized basketball, the current state raises concerns about innovation in the game. Unlike other major leagues, the NBA has not adjusted the 3-point arc despite its evolution in gameplay style. Expanding the 3-point line might encourage more diverse offensive strategies and allow for the return of mid-range shots.

As the basketball landscape evolves, the question remains: Are we witnessing a decline in the variety of skills showcased on the court? Addressing the 3-point line may be an essential step for the NBA to promote a broader range of offensive tactics and enhance the viewing experience for fans. As Kirk Goldsberry, a leading basketball analyst, argues, the league must take action to encourage a diverse array of plays beyond the current reliance on 3-point shots.

Determining the future of the NBA’s shooting dynamics will be crucial for promoting exciting and varied play. The league’s decision-makers must heed the evolution of the game and consider adjustments to ensure that basketball remains a vibrant and engaging sport.