Former BitMEX CEO Predicts Crypto Market Correction by March 2025

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has forecasted that the cryptocurrency markets will peak by mid-March 2025, followed by a “severe” correction. In a recent Substack post, Hayes drew parallels between the premature opening of ski resorts in Hokkaido, Japan, due to heavy snowfall and the earlier-than-expected crypto market correction he had predicted. He warned that the market could face significant sell-offs as investors realize the limitations of pro-crypto policies under a potential second Trump administration.

Hayes, who previously warned of a “Trump dump” during Donald Trump‘s presidency, now believes this correction has already occurred between mid-December and the end of 2024. He suggests that increased dollar liquidity in early 2025 could offset disappointment in White House policies, potentially creating “positive momentum” for cryptocurrencies. “The sasa of a letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter,” Hayes wrote.

As the chief investment officer of Maelstrom, Hayes plans to encourage his team to take on higher risk, particularly in decentralized science (DeSci) projects, which he refers to as “shitcoins.” He acknowledged that his latest prediction marks a reversal of his earlier stance on Trump’s impact on crypto markets. “Imagine you made a hole-in-one every time you hit a golf ball, sunk every three-point shot taken in basketball or off the break, and always pocketed every ball playing billiards. Life would be excruciatingly dull,” Hayes quipped, emphasizing the importance of adapting to new information.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, has also signaled that the current bull run may be nearing its peak. Data shows that 36% of Bitcoin traded in Q4 2024 had been held for less than a month, a pattern similar to previous market tops. Despite this, analysts like Steno Research and VanEck remain optimistic, predicting Bitcoin could reach $180,000 and Ethereum $6,000 by the end of 2025. However, short-term challenges, including reduced liquidity and Federal Reserve policies, could slow momentum.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $102,138, with key support at $97,026 and resistance at $103,096. Analysts advise caution, recommending gradual liquidation of positions as the market approaches its cyclical peak. While 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for cryptocurrencies, marked by significant price movements and regulatory milestones, investors are urged to remain vigilant as the market matures.