Futures Rise as Markets Brace for Tariff Deadline and Economic Data

BENGALURU, India — U.S. stock index futures rose slightly on Monday as investors prepared for a significant deadline on tariffs affecting key trading partners, amid a week full of economic indicators that could impact the nation’s financial outlook.

At 5:50 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis gained 101 points, or 0.23%. The S&P 500 E-minis climbed 19 points, or 0.31%, while the Nasdaq 100 E-minis increased by 89 points, or 0.43%.

Recent reports indicating a decline in consumer demand have heightened concerns about a potential economic slowdown as markets brace for heightened inflation resulting from the Trump administration’s tariff strategies. February saw Wall Street’s major indexes experience their first monthly decline of 2025, with the Nasdaq nearing a 10% drop from its record high.

“Inflation concerns have kept the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates since December,” said market analyst Jane Doe. “This week’s data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report set for Friday, could serve as a turning point.”

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey, anticipated at 10 a.m. ET, is expected to show manufacturing activity maintaining an expansion level of 50.8, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. Along with this, various employment reports will be released throughout the week.

Market speculation has pivoted towards potential monetary policy changes by the Fed in 2025, with futures suggesting at least two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by December, based on data compiled by LSEG.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to provide remarks later on Monday, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday.

Investor anxiety surrounding tariffs is mounting, as Trump’s Tuesday deadline will end a temporary pause on the 25% duties applied to imports from Canada and Mexico. Some speculate the President may ease the impact on North American economies if they commit to new actions against Chinese imports.

Moreover, Trump hinted at introducing an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods, prompting reports that Beijing may retaliate with countermeasures targeting agricultural imports from the U.S. Pre-market trading saw U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies like Nio drop 3.6%, while JD.com fell by 2.3%.

April 1 is anticipated as a key date for the full disclosure of the new administration’s trade policy. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency-related stocks have seen substantial gains, with Microstrategy jumping 12.3% and Coinbase rising 9.4% as Bitcoin surged 9.8% following Trump’s announcement of a proposed digital asset reserve ahead of the upcoming White House Crypto Summit.

Defense stocks also received a boost, with RTX rising 2.1% and Lockheed Martin climbing 1.1% after the U.S. government approved a $3 billion arms deal with Israel.

Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; editing by Shinjini Ganguli.