Polling Trends Show Labor Struggling Amid Economic Concerns

Recent polling data indicates a challenging landscape for the Labor Party in Australia, as economic issues dominate voters’ priorities. A national survey conducted between July 15 and 19, with a sample of 1,258 respondents, revealed that the Labor government leads the Coalition by a narrow margin of 51–49, a figure that remained unchanged from a previous Newspoll released three weeks earlier.

In terms of primary votes, the polling showed a slight increase for the Coalition, which now stands at 38%, up by two percentage points, compared to Labor’s 33%, which gained one point. The Greens received steady support at 13%, while One Nation dropped to 6%, and all other parties collectively fell to 10%.

Both leaders saw improvement in their net approval ratings, with Anthony Albanese experiencing a four-point gain, resulting in a net approval of -7. Dissatisfaction with Albanese was reported at 51%, down two points from before, while the satisfaction rate rose to 44%. On the other hand, Peter Dutton‘s net approval increased significantly, increasing by eight points to -8. In the contest for better Prime Minister, Albanese led Dutton 46% to 39%, reflecting a slight change from the previous polling figures.

A graphical representation of Albanese’s net approval, drawn from Newspoll data, indicates that after a poor performance in the last survey, his ratings have now returned to his typical levels, particularly following the results of the October 2023 Voice referendum.

Dutton’s current net approval scores are his best since October 2022, indicating that his position as a leader may be gaining traction among voters as well.

Despite Newspoll showing Labor in the lead, other polls indicate that Labor is trailing behind. The persistent focus on the rising cost of living appears to be a significant hurdle for the incumbent government. When asked about a preferred leader for Labor, 28% of respondents chose Albanese, while Tanya Plibersek received 13%, Bill Shorten 10%, and Jim Chalmers 8%. Among those who identified as Labor voters, Albanese led significantly with 59% preference.

Conversely, for the Coalition leadership, Dutton was favored by 28%, with Jacinta Price trailing at 12%. Among Coalition voters, Dutton had the support of 54%.

In a separate poll conducted for the Financial Review from July 19 to 21, involving 1,003 respondents, the Coalition gained a slight lead over Labor, securing a 51–49 advantage when preferences were allocated. The Coalition maintained a stable primary vote share of 40%, while Labor decreased to 31%. The Greens’ support remained unchanged at 13%, and others rose to 16%.

Albanese’s net approval in this poll dropped by two points to -14, with 48% of respondents viewing him unfavorably and 34% favorably. However, Dutton’s approval improved by two points to -3. In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Albanese led Dutton 45% to 39%—a slight gain from the previous survey’s results.

Concerning economic outlook, a significant majority—50%—of voters believed that the economy would deteriorate over the next year, with only 21% expecting improvements. The cost of living has emerged as one of the top concerns for voters, rated as significant by 73%, followed by housing at 42%, managing the economy and health both at 26%, and crime at 25%.

The Coalition outperformed Labor by a lead of 12 points on cost of living issues, which represents an increase of three points since the previous month. They also held a two-point advantage over Labor on housing, although there was a three-point improvement seen for Labor on this front.

In another survey conducted from July 10 to 14 among 1,122 people, the Coalition was reported to have a 48–46 lead when including undecided voters, reflecting a slight shift from the previous month’s figures. The polling found that primary votes for the Coalition remained stable at 33%, while Labor’s support dipped by one point to 29%. The Greens received 13%, and One Nation managed an increase to 8%.

Data from this Essential poll also indicated a trend where Labor has only led once since early April, attributed to a weaker preference allocation for Labor. Analysts pointed out that Labor was receiving just 53% of all preferences, which could be problematic for them.

When voters were asked about their attitudes toward politics, only 7% indicated they actively participate, while 42% stated they closely follow political matters. A substantial segment, 37%, reported little interest, and 15% expressed no interest at all. Meanwhile, sports engagement was slightly higher, with 15% participating, 37% following closely, 29% having little interest, and 19% showing no interest.

Among Australian sports, the Olympics ranked as the most popular viewing event at 48%, followed by AFL at 40%, tennis at 36%, cricket and rugby both at 33%, and soccer at 28%. The survey also revealed that public sentiment is largely against sports betting advertisements, with 43% advocating for a complete ban and 25% suggesting they should be prohibited during events.

Looking forward to the upcoming Olympics, 64% expressed that it was important for Australia to win gold medals, an increase of 11 points since the last Olympics, while 30% deemed it unimportant, highlighting a possible challenge in managing public expectations.

In recent polls regarding local sentiments, a survey also addressed whether voters have noticed any direct impact resulting from the modified stage three plan, with 57% responding negatively.

In political party dynamics, there was support for maintaining party discipline, with 54% in favor of enforcing party voting over independence, including substantial support from Labor voters at 54% to 14%. Additionally, 41% believed that Fatima Payman should resign from the Senate to allow for a Labor Senator to step in.

As the political landscape unfolds, the upcoming Queensland state election, scheduled for October 26, is projected to present a significant challenge for the Labor Party. As per a recent poll conducted from July 8 to 15 involving 1,019 participants, the Liberal National Party (LNP) has a commanding 57–43 lead over Labor, translating to a one-point gain for the LNP since April. In terms of primary votes, the LNP stood at 43%, Labor at 26%, the Greens at 14%, and One Nation showing an increase to 13%.

With Labor Premier Steven Miles suffering from a net approval rating of -13, marked by 44% dissatisfaction compared to 31% satisfaction, LNP leader David Crisafulli has improved his ratings, achieving a net approval of +17. Crisafulli also leads as the preferred premier, with 40% support against Miles’ 29%, reflecting a trend that suggests a challenging election ahead for Labor.

Overall, the trajectory of both federal and state-level politics indicates a precarious situation for Labor, which seems to be under increasing scrutiny and pressure as economic concerns continue to dominate voter sentiment.