US Retail Sales Show Resilience in October Despite High Interest Rates

The latest data from the US Census Bureau released on November 15, 2024, indicates that retail sales in the United States continued to show resilience in October, despite the challenges posed by high interest rates. The headline retail sales figure rose by 0.4% from September to October, slightly exceeding the expected increase of 0.3%[1][4].

The control group, which is a key component in calculating GDP, saw a slight decline of 0.1%, contrasting with the expected increase of 0.3%. However, this figure was mitigated by upward revisions to prior readings, with the previous month’s control group revised from +0.7% to +1.2%.

Retail sales excluding autos increased by 0.1%, which was below the expected 0.3%, but the overall retail sales figure reached $718.9 billion, up from $714.4 billion in the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales grew by 2.8%, an improvement from the 1.7% growth seen in the prior period.

The data suggests that consumer spending remains robust heading into the holiday season. This is further supported by growth in food services, indicating that consumers are continuing to spend on services, a sector particularly sensitive to economic conditions.

While the numbers are generally positive, they do reflect a slight slowdown compared to the previous month’s robust 0.8% increase. Nonetheless, the overall trend indicates steady consumer demand in the fourth quarter[4].