Severe Storms on Track for Iowa Monday: What to Expect

DES MOINES, Iowa — A severe weather outbreak is possible Monday across much of Iowa, with meteorologists warning of significant risks associated with the looming storms.

The Storm Prediction Center upgraded most of central and northeastern Iowa to a Level 4 of 5 risk for severe storms, indicating a 45% chance of severe weather. The rest of Iowa falls within a Level 3 risk area, which translates to a 30% chance of severe conditions.

This heightened risk is attributed to a combination of heat, moisture, and wind shear that will converge on the area. Temperatures on Monday are expected to soar above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, with humidity reaching its highest levels of the spring. Winds could gust above 35 mph, creating an atmosphere ripe for storms.

Current forecasts indicate the threat of severe weather will be most pronounced from early afternoon until late evening. However, there is uncertainty about how widespread the storms will actually be. Forecasters noted that significant storm triggers, like low-pressure systems, will be positioned well to the north of Iowa, complicating predictions for storm development.

Additionally, a warm layer of air—known as a “cap”—will hang over most of Iowa, which could suppress storm formation unless sufficient heat and humidity break down these layers. This complicated interaction between various atmospheric factors may impact the potential for severe storms.

Storms are expected to develop later in the day primarily in western Iowa before moving eastward quickly. Meteorologists caution that the types of storms that develop, whether they remain isolated or form into a line, could dictate the severity of threats, including large hail and tornadoes.

A long window for storm potential has been identified, from approximately 1-2 p.m. until 10-11 p.m., and detailed tracking of storm development will continue to clarify timing and threats in the coming hours.

As residents prepare for this severe weather event, officials advise reviewing severe weather safety plans and ensuring multiple ways to receive warnings. A NOAA Weather Radio is a useful tool, along with local news outlets for updates as conditions evolve.