NOAA Predicts Above-Normal Hurricane Season for 2025

Washington, D.C. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic in 2025, with a significant chance of severe storms. The outlook was released on May 22 during a news conference ahead of the official season start on June 1.

Forecasters estimate there will be 13 to 19 named storms in total, with 6 to 10 expected to become hurricanes. Among these, 3 to 5 could escalate to major hurricanes, categorized as storms with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. NOAA has reported a 70% confidence in these predictions.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and hurricane tracking systems,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. He emphasized their commitment to providing real-time storm forecasts and warnings to help Americans prepare.

Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm also highlighted the importance of early forecasts. “The impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” she said, referencing widespread flooding experienced from last year’s storms.

Several factors contribute to the predicted activity this season, such as warmer than average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear, and an enhanced West African Monsoon. These elements promote tropical storm formation, increasing the likelihood of a busy hurricane season.

Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, stated, “In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems.” He encouraged residents to prepare by making a plan and gathering necessary supplies.

This year’s forecast underscores the importance of severe weather preparedness. As the season approaches, NOAA plans to improve its communications and support efforts for storm recovery.

NOAA is also set to update its seasonal outlook in early August, just ahead of the peak of hurricane season.