BigBear.ai Stock Drops 29% After Disappointing Q2 Results

ARLINGTON, Va. — BigBear.ai‘s stock plunged over 29% during after-hours trading following disappointing earnings for the second quarter. The company reported an 18% decline in revenue year-over-year, significantly missing analysts’ expectations.

In its latest earnings report, BigBear.ai disclosed revenue of $32.6 million, down from $39.8 million a year ago and below the expected $40.59 million. The report highlighted an adjusted loss of $0.71 per share, which is a substantial miss from the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.06 per share. Additionally, last year, the company posted a loss of $0.06 per share.

BigBear.ai also announced a revised forecast for its full-year adjusted EBITDA, now withdrawing its 2025 guidance due to ongoing disruptions in federal contracts. The adjusted EBITDA stood at negative $8.5 million due to softer margins and increased research and development expenses.

The company has reduced its revenue outlook for 2025, now estimating between $125 million and $140 million, compared to a previous expectation of $160 million to $180 million. This adjustment comes as government agencies face delays in upgrading their data systems.

Despite these short-term challenges, CEO McAleenan expressed optimism, noting that a new law allocating $170 billion for Homeland Security and $150 billion for Defense technology aligns with BigBear.ai’s focus on national and border security.

This quarter, the company also launched a partnership with IHC-backed firms, which McAleenan described as a step towards global growth plans.

On Wall Street, BigBear.ai holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on one Buy and one Hold recommendation from analysts in the last three months. The stock is currently priced at $8.00, with an upside potential of 12.83%. However, analysts expect that estimates may vary following the latest earnings report.