Astronomers Track Asteroid 2024 YR4 Before Possible Collision in 2032

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — Scientists are closely monitoring a newly discovered asteroid, referred to as 2024 YR4, which currently has a 2% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. While the odds of impact remain low, astronomers are ramping up observations to gather more data on its trajectory and physical characteristics before it fades from view in April.

The asteroid, which ranges in size from approximately 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters), was first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, on December 27, 2024. Dr. Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, explained that while 2024 YR4 is not as large as the “planet-killer” asteroid that struck Earth 66 million years ago, its potential to cause significant local damage still warrants close scrutiny.

“Smaller asteroids can cause regional devastation,” Chodas stated. “We need to gather as much information as possible to ensure public safety.” The observational effort is set to intensify this March, when the James Webb Space Telescope will begin tracking 2024 YR4 to acquire crucial data on its size and heat signature, helping refine its orbit calculations.

Observatories across the globe, including facilities in New Mexico, Chile, and Hawaii, are actively involved in tracking the asteroid. The Pan-STARRS telescope in Hawaii is recognized as a leading instrument in near-Earth object discovery, as highlighted by Doug Simons, director at the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy. “Hawaiʻi’s telescopes are some of the most important tools for planetary defense,” he said.

Despite over 340 observations collected since its discovery, astronomers are still refining the asteroid’s size estimates due to its low reflectivity. The James Webb Telescope, set to begin its observations in early March, will enable scientists to gather infrared measurements, which will yield a more precise diameter estimate.

The asteroid is currently located over 30 million miles (48 million kilometers) from Earth and is on an orbit that takes it around the sun every four years. If 2024 YR4 is ruled out for a potential impact this May, its risk will remain until it returns to a closer trajectory in June 2028. Current predictions suggest that it will pass near Earth in 2028 without posing a threat.

Chodas cautioned that the asteroid’s size is pivotal in determining the risk it poses. “If it turns out to be on the larger end of its estimated size range, an impact could cause blast damage as far as 31 miles (50 kilometers) from the site of impact,” he explained. However, it is essential to keep in mind that these scenarios are speculative at this stage.

A 50-meter asteroid hitting Earth is estimated to happen every few thousand years, with potentially severe local consequences. Historically, significant impacts, such as the Tunguska event in 1908, highlighted the devastation smaller impacts can cause. In the Tunguska event, a smaller asteroid flattened vast forest areas across 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers) of Siberian wilderness.

It is unclear how the monitoring process will play out as astronomers aim to eliminate uncertainties surrounding 2024 YR4’s trajectory. NASA and the European Space Agency have emphasized that there is a likelihood their calculated impact risk will fluctuate as they gather more observational data. “Don’t panic,” said Larry Denneau, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy. “These predictions are not set in stone.”

The international scientific community is poised to respond with rapid observation to ensure accurate tracking and assessment of near-Earth objects. Should further analysis reveal the 2024 YR4 impact is a distinct possibility, planetary defense strategies could be discussed, including potential methods of deflection.