Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected Despite Slow Start

FORT COLLINS, Colorado — Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology team anticipates an above-average Atlantic hurricane season as the active phase starts in August. They predict 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This marks a slight decrease from earlier projections made in April and June.

Dr. Philip Klotzbach, the lead author, explained that while models suggest a hyperactive season, sustained high wind shear in the Caribbean has tempered expectations. Nonetheless, he remarked, “Conditions remain conducive for an above-normal season.”

As of July 30, the season has already seen three named storms: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. The tropical Atlantic waters remain warmer than average, which could support cyclone formation as the peak months approach.

Forecasters also predict that ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific will persist, historically favoring Atlantic hurricane activity. Despite the adjusted forecast, the likelihood of a major hurricane striking the U.S. is still above average, with CSU estimating a 48% chance of at least one major hurricane hitting the continental U.S., compared to the historical average of 43%.

Klotzbach urged coastal residents to stay alert. “It only takes one landfalling storm to make it a devastating season for a community,” he said, emphasizing the importance of preparedness.

Experts expect hurricane activity will increase significantly as August progresses. The current season is pacing ahead of the historical average, and many believe that active conditions are set to emerge in the coming weeks.