Dubai Grapples with International Tensions Following Murder of Chabad Rabbi

Dubai, known for its iconic landmarks such as the Burj Khalifa and the Dubai Mall, has been thrust into the international spotlight once again due to a tragic and politically charged event. On Sunday, Chabad emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan was murdered in what is suspected to be a terrorist attack, allegedly orchestrated by Iran. This incident has significant implications for the region and the United Arab Emirates‘ (UAE) relations with both Israel and Iran.

The murder of Rabbi Kogan is reminiscent of a similar incident in January 2010, when Hamas terrorist Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was killed in a Dubai hotel. That case was linked to the Mossad and had a chilling effect on Israeli-UAE relations until they were normalized under the Abraham Accords in 2020. The current incident could similarly strain the UAE’s delicate balance with Iran and Israel, as well as impact other Arab states considering normalization with Israel.

Western officials believe that Iranian intelligence operates extensively in the UAE, monitoring over half a million Iranians living there and keeping tabs on Israeli presence. The involvement of Uzbek nationals in the murder, allegedly recruited by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), marks a new and concerning development in Iranian terrorist activities. This could embolden opposition within the UAE to reassess ties with Israel, arguing that such relationships invite attacks and complicate relations with Iran.

The economic and trade relations between Israel and the UAE, despite recent tensions due to the war in Gaza, have remained robust. Trade between the two countries has outpaced previous records, with $2.4 billion in trade from January through September 2024. However, this latest incident could reignite domestic debates over the value of the Abraham Accords and have far-reaching security repercussions.

The incident also raises concerns about the broader regional implications, particularly for other Arab states considering normalization with Israel. The potential for Iranian operations against Israeli or Jewish targets within these countries could reinforce hesitancy to deepen ties with Israel.