Election Forecast Reveals Shifting Political Landscape Ahead of German Vote

BERLIN, Germany — As the German federal election approaches this Sunday, a recent forecast from Election.de highlights regional success probabilities and shifts among the major political parties. Voter sentiment is critical, with millions remaining undecided ahead of a tense election period.

According to the latest district forecasts released on February 21, 2025, candidates from the Union bloc continue to lead in most electoral districts. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains its position in eastern rural areas, although the forecast indicates a slight decrease in secured victories for the party.

The Green Party, represented by leading candidate Robert Habeck, fails to secure a victory in any electoral district based on current predictions. In contrast, candidates from the Social Democratic Party (SPD) are seen as likely to claim several direct mandates, particularly in northern and central Germany. The SPD’s Johann Saathoff is expected to perform well in the Aurich-Emden district.

Compared to the 2021 federal election, the SPD is projected to face significant losses. Only ten regions show strong prospects for SPD candidates, with the party previously winning direct mandates in 121 districts. In 2021, they were projected to secure 25 definitive, 52 probable, and 54 leading positions in districts.

The Green Party now has two probable winning districts and nine additional districts where candidates appear competitive. Meanwhile, there is a noted increase in potential victories for the Left Party, with forecasts indicating up to five districts where they could succeed.

For the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW), the outlook is grim. The forecast reveals zero likelihood of winning any district. Christian Lindner, the former Federal Minister of Finance and leading FDP candidate, is facing a predicted 100% win probability for the CDU candidate in his district east of Cologne.

Lindner may still enter the Bundestag via the party list if the FDP secures enough votes, though this remains uncertain. BSW’s notable figure, Sahra Wagenknecht, is not expected to win any district but could secure a parliamentary spot if the new leftist movement garners over five percent of the national vote.

The Union bloc is anticipated to achieve a majority in most districts, with the forecast indicating they could win 166 districts outright or with a likely advantage. This marks a slight decline from the previous week’s total of 168.

The AfD also sees a noteworthy prediction of winning in 33 districts, alongside twelve regions where they are projected to lead. Most of these successes are expected in Eastern Germany, which may ignite significant discussions post-election.

Another critical aspect of the election is the limitation on Bundestag seats to a maximum of 630. The distribution of these seats relies heavily on the parties’ share of secondary votes. This new electoral law, applied for the first time during this election, means not every district win guarantees a parliamentary seat due to the elimination of balancing and overhang mandates.

As Election.de’s predictions are informed by over 30 million simulated potential election outcomes, they intend to provide a more precise picture compared to traditional polling methods. “The forecasts yield continuously updated first-vote shares by district,” said Moehl, the person behind Election.de, indicating that these forecasts offer significant insights into potential electoral results.

The results will be closely monitored, particularly for fluctuations in voter turnout. The last federal election saw a relatively low participation rate of 76.6%, suggesting that previously inactive voters could dramatically influence the new composition of the Bundestag. While these forecasts provide a glimpse into potential outcomes, the final decision rests squarely in the hands of the electorate.