Global Economic Data Week: Inflation and Interest Rates in Focus

NEW YORK, March 14, 2025 — Investors and traders are gearing up for a crucial week of global economic data from March 17 to 21, as they watch inflation rates, U.S. jobs data, and interest rate decisions from central banks. Key reports throughout the week are expected to provide insights into consumer spending and economic health.

The week kicks off on Monday with the release of U.S. retail sales data for February. The Wall Street consensus anticipates that retail spending will show a slight recovery, rebounding from the previous month’s decline of 0.9% to a forecasted increase of 0.7%.

On March 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene to determine whether to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address reporters following the meeting, providing insight into future monetary policy amid ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly regarding trade tariffs and inflation.

According to a report from the Census Bureau, retail sales experienced a decline of 0.9% to $723.9 billion in January, while annual growth remained steady at 4.2%. Jefferies Chief U.S. Economist Anil Simons mentioned, “While the market remains fixated on potential impacts of U.S. policy changes, coincidental data suggests the U.S. consumer remains strong.”

Overseas, the Euro Area and China are also expected to release critical data. On Tuesday, the Euro Area’s balance of trade for January is anticipated to show a surplus of €14.1 billion, an increase from December’s €15.5 billion. China’s industrial production for January-February is forecasted to grow 5.3%, down from 6.2% in the same period last year. Additionally, China’s retail sales are projected to rise by 4% year-over-year, up from 3.7%.

As Wednesday approaches, the market will keep a close watch on Japan‘s balance of trade data, which is expected to report a deficit of ¥-2,758.8 billion. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also set to announce its interest rate decision, likely leaving the rate unchanged at 0.50%.

Throughout the week, the attention will also be on the U.S. job market. Initial jobless claims, reported on Thursday, are estimated at 220,000, slightly down from the prior week’s 224,000. Economists are closely monitoring these figures to gauge labor market health against rising inflation.

In a recent statement, Powell emphasized that the Fed will remain cautious as it assesses the impact of trade tariffs on the economy: “We are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

The week concludes with consumer confidence figures from the Euro Area and inflation rates from Japan, as analysts predict a slight dip in Japan’s inflation rate to 4%, and a core inflation rate of 3.2%, presenting further challenges for policymakers.

In summary, this week’s economic data will be instrumental in shaping market expectations, as consumers and investors navigate the uncertainties surrounding inflation, interest rates, and job growth across major economies.