Grain Futures Drop as U.S. Crop Inventories Decline

Chicago, Illinois — Grain and soybean futures fell in overnight trading, driven by disappointing export sales and favorable weather predictions for U.S. wheat-growing regions.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a significant drop in wheat export sales, reaching just 100,300 metric tons for the week ending March 20, down 65% from the previous four-week average. Major buyers included Japan, which purchased 72,000 metric tons, Nigeria with 53,400 tons, and the Philippines at 29,800 tons.

Corn sales also saw a decline, dropping 31% week over week to 1.04 million metric tons, with Japan leading purchases at 415,300 tons, followed by Mexico at 309,900 tons, and Colombia at 212,900 tons.

For soybeans, sales totaled 338,500 tons, down 4% from the previous week and 28% below the prior four-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer, purchasing 260,900 tons, while China and Japan bought 202,300 and 86,200 tons, respectively.

Weighing further on prices was the forecast for rainfall in the eastern Midwest, crucial for soft red winter wheat growth. The National Weather Service indicated that rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas from today through next Thursday.

“Showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase across southeast Oklahoma today, with less coverage further north and east,” the NWS stated.

In trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for May delivery fell 7½ cents to $5.24½ per bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 11¾ cents to $5.54½ per bushel. Corn futures were down 4 cents to $4.46 per bushel, and soybeans for May delivery fell 4 cents to $10.12¾ per bushel. Soymeal lost $2 to $292.50 per short ton, and soy oil dipped 0.11 cents to 44.16 cents per pound.

In related news, the USDA reported a slight decrease in hog and pig inventories at the beginning of the month. As of March 1, the U.S. herd totaled 74.5 million head, down from 74.7 million a year earlier and 1% from December 1. Breeding inventory also fell 1% year over year to 5.98 million head, slightly down from the previous quarter.

Market hogs counted at 68.5 million head on the same date showed minimal year-over-year decrease. The USDA reported that the December through February pig crop totaled 33.7 million head, a decrease from 33.8 million a year earlier. Farrowing sows during this period totaled 2.89 million head, also down 1%.

Looking ahead, U.S. hog producers expect to have 2.91 million sows farrow from March to May, with farrowings for the June–August quarter forecast at 2.96 million sows, a 1% decrease compared to the previous year.

Winter weather advisories are currently in effect for parts of Minnesota and North Dakota, anticipating snow and ice. The National Weather Service forecasts conditions that could lead to slippery roads.

In Nebraska, red-flag warnings have been issued due to expected sustained winds of 20–30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph. Conditions in west-central Nebraska may see humidity drop to 12%, raising concerns about wildfire risks.

The region is likely to experience near-record temperatures going into the weekend, creating a mixed bag of challenges for farmers as they manage their crops and livestock.