Macau’s Economy Faces Uncertainty, Secretary Predicts Positive Growth

MACAU, November 25, 2025 — Secretary for Economy and Finance Tai Kin Ip did not provide a GDP forecast for 2026 during a Legislative Assembly session on Tuesday. Despite inquiries from lawmakers, he indicated only that he expected ‘positive growth.’

The session marked the first reading of the government’s budget for 2026, during which lawmakers approved a gross gaming revenue (GGR) projection of MOP236 billion (US$29.38 billion) for the upcoming year. This figure is a benchmark based on recent monthly performance data.

In his remarks, the secretary cited that the GGR averaged MOP19.66 billion monthly in the first half of the year, suggesting that this trend could continue. Multiplying this figure by twelve aligns closely with the government’s forecast. However, he acknowledged presents challenges, noting, ‘In the first 10 months this year, gross gaming revenue fell short of expectations in five months.’

Ip attributed some of this uncertainty to external economic conditions, stating, ‘Forecasts about external and surrounding economies have posed challenges to Macau as a small and highly sensitive economy, which is vulnerable to fluctuations.’

The 2026 budget outlined expected revenues of nearly MOP118.8 billion against expenditures of around MOP113.5 billion. If these predictions hold true, the government expects a surplus exceeding MOP5.3 billion.