Marco Rubio Set to Bring China Realism to the State Department

In a significant development for U.S. foreign policy, Senator Marco Rubio is poised to become the next Secretary of State in the second Trump administration, according to recent media reports. Known for his strong stance as a China hawk, Rubio brings a unique perspective to the role, having published a comprehensive 60-page report titled “The World China Made” in September. This report provides an in-depth analysis of China’s economic success and its implications for U.S. policy.

Rubio’s report highlights China’s strategic moves in establishing global value chains, including sophisticated factories in third countries to circumvent U.S. tariffs. This approach has allowed China to maintain its export success and expand its influence in the Global South. The report underscores the need for the United States to make extraordinary efforts to stay ahead of China technologically and economically, cautioning against complacency in the face of China’s rising power.

The appointment of Rubio as Secretary of State has sparked speculation about the potential for a grand bargain with China, similar to Nixon’s historic 1972 visit. Rubio’s deep knowledge of China’s economic strategies and his realistic approach could facilitate a more nuanced and effective U.S. policy towards China. This contrasts with the more confrontational views held by some other China hawks in Washington, who believe in hastening China’s collapse through military and economic pressure.

Rubio’s stance is seen as a balance between realism and the need for strategic engagement. His analysis emphasizes that China’s development model, while successful in the short term, may not be sustainable in the long term due to structural problems. However, he also warns that the U.S. cannot be complacent about the ongoing threat posed by China to American industry and workers.

The upcoming transition at the State Department under Rubio’s leadership is expected to shape U.S. foreign policy significantly, particularly in relation to China. His approach is likely to focus on competitive strategies rather than purely confrontational ones, reflecting a more pragmatic view of the U.S.-China relationship.