MongoDB Upgraded Ahead of Q4 Earnings Amidst Competitive AI Landscape

BALTIMORE, Md. — MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDB) received an upgrade from Monness Crespi to Neutral from Sell ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday. Analysts expect the company to report revenue of $547 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06, reflecting a projected growth rate of 19% as it navigates a competitive landscape in the database and AI markets.

The upgrade comes as MongoDB looks to capitalize on long-term trends in cloud computing and generative artificial intelligence, despite intensifying competition. According to Monness Crespi, ‘MongoDB has an opportunity to participate in long-term, secular trends in the database market, but competition remains fierce.’

As the global artificial intelligence market is projected to expand significantly—from $757.58 billion in 2025 to an estimated $3.68 trillion by 2034—MongoDB is positioned to leverage this growth. A February report by Precedence Research indicates that North America led the AI market in 2024 with valuations of $235.63 billion, while the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to note the highest growth rate of nearly 20% during this period.

The anticipated growth of the U.S. market is specifically notable, projected to increase from $146.09 billion in 2024 to $851.46 billion by 2034, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.33%. Influencing factors include increased investment in AI research, automation demands, and supportive government initiatives across numerous sectors.

Rahul Ghosh of T. Rowe Price stated in a CNBC interview that while optimism remains regarding AI advancements, capital expenditure growth is experiencing a slowdown. ‘The projected growth for hyperscalers is around 44-45% in 2025, which is considerably lower compared to the triple-digit increases we’ve witnessed in years past,’ Ghosh said.

An emerging concern is the sustainability of AI spending; investors are increasingly scrutinizing how much of this investment is supported by free cash flow as opposed to leveraged funding. The emphasis now has shifted toward monetization, prompting analysts and investors to assess which companies are genuinely profiting from their AI endeavors.

Despite MongoDB’s current ranking of third among AI stocks to watch, experts continue to express caution. The ongoing analysis reveals a strong performance from larger tech firms, particularly in the United States and China, which are leading revenue generation through AI strategies. While major players dominate, smaller AI companies show potential to emerge with innovative consumer applications.

In summary, while MongoDB aims to establish a foothold in an evolving market, the fierce competition and decaying growth expectations present significant challenges. Analysts remain vigilant ahead of the forthcoming earnings report, assessing whether MongoDB can meet or exceed expectations amid a transformative period in technology.