NOAA Predicts La Niña to Shape U.S. Winter Weather Patterns

A slowly-developing La Niña is expected to influence weather conditions across the United States this winter, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook released by NOAA’s National Weather Service on October 17, 2024. The outlook, which covers December 2024 through February 2025, provides predictions for temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts wetter-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the continental U.S., especially in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes region, and northern and western Alaska. Conversely, drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic states.

“In September, we announced a $100 million investment into NOAA’s high-performance computer system to advance research on weather, climate, and ocean predictions,” stated Michael Morgan, Ph.D., NOAA’s assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. “Understanding our climate system is essential for making longer-term predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook, which provides vital information for many of our partners and the public.”

Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, commented on the emerging La Niña, emphasizing its anticipated impact on winter patterns, particularly precipitation predictions. La Niña conditions are expected to develop later this fall, altering storm tracks northward and likely leading to warmer and drier conditions across the southern U.S.

NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), predict that drought conditions may persist and deteriorate in the central and southern Plains. “More than a quarter of the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.”

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks indicate the probability of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation, and how drought conditions might evolve. Unlike detailed snowfall projections, which are typically inaccurate more than a week in advance, these seasonal outlooks aim to help communities prepare and adapt for forthcoming conditions.

The Winter Seasonal Outlooks are updated monthly, with the next release scheduled for November 21. These outlooks form part of NOAA’s broader efforts to provide actionable forecasts and build a Weather-Ready Nation.