NOAA Releases 2024-2025 Winter Outlook: La Niña Expected to Influence U.S. Weather Patterns

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its annual winter outlook for the upcoming 2024-2025 season, projecting weather patterns across the United States. The report indicates a 60% probability of a La Niña event developing by late November, potentially shaping weather conditions this winter. La Niña, identified by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the Pacific, often results in drier and warmer conditions in the southern regions of the U.S. and cooler, wetter weather in the north.

This year’s La Niña is forecasted to be weaker and shorter compared to previous events, posing challenges for long-term weather predictions. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center highlights that the southern U.S., particularly Texas and Gulf Coast states like Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi, are likely to experience warmer-than-average temperatures this winter.

Conversely, the Pacific Northwest, extending to the northern High Plains, is anticipated to face cooler-than-usual conditions. States such as Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and the Dakotas are among those expected to experience these cooler temperatures, with the potential for wetter-than-average weather in Montana, Wyoming, and parts of the Great Lakes region, including Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky.

Meanwhile, drier-than-average conditions are projected for states along the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, and Southern New Mexico. The report also predicts a continuation of moderate to extreme drought conditions across much of the Great Plains and parts of the Rocky Mountains. Drought conditions may worsen or develop further in the Southwest and Gulf Coast regions.

In some areas, improvement in drought conditions is expected. The Ohio River Valley, Great Lakes region, and parts of the northwestern U.S. including Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, may see a reduction in drought severity or possibly an end to these conditions.