Over $100 Million Wagered on 2024 Presidential Election Through Kalshi Prediction Markets

In a significant development in the realm of election betting, Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event contract exchange, has seen more than $100 million wagered on the 2024 presidential election. This surge in betting activity follows a recent federal appeals court ruling that allowed Kalshi to launch an election prediction market, marking a return to a practice that was common in the early 20th century but had declined due to restrictive gambling laws and the advent of scientific polling.

The betting platform, which operates under U.S. regulatory protections, has attracted substantial interest with its election contracts. An advertisement for KalshiEX LLC, aired during Donald Trump‘s rally at Madison Square Garden, encouraged viewers to place bets, highlighting potential returns such as $175 on a $100 bet on Trump.

According to Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, the election market is seen as a ‘mechanism for truth,’ currently indicating a 63% chance of a Trump victory. However, this contrasts with most political polls, which show the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as statistically tied.

Critics, including Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), have expressed concerns that allowing such betting could jeopardize American democracy, labeling the decision a ‘huge mistake’. Despite these concerns, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to project Trump as the likely victor, although his odds have recently fallen by about 10% on these platforms.

The electoral map based on Kalshi’s prediction market odds uses colored gradients to indicate the likelihood of each candidate winning, with deeper colors representing higher probabilities. This visual tool helps users understand the market’s projections for the election outcome.