Pennsylvania: The Battleground State in the 2024 US Presidential Race

The state of Pennsylvania, with its significant 19 electoral votes, is regarded as a pivotal battleground in the 2024 US presidential election. Analysts, including Nate Silver, suggest that winning Pennsylvania is crucial, with a candidate having more than a 90% chance of winning the presidency if they secure this state. Former Congressman Patrick Murphy highlighted Pennsylvania’s importance, describing it as “the granddaddy of all the swing states.”

Pennsylvania’s demographic, economic, and political diversity make it a microcosm of the United States. Once a manufacturing powerhouse, the state now hosts growing industries alongside a significant energy sector due to its oil shale deposits. While agriculture remains a cornerstone, the state’s population is predominantly white, yet immigrant communities, notably Hispanic, African American, and others, are expanding, especially in urban areas.

Politically, Pennsylvania is characterized by its urban-rural divide. Cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh lean Democratic, whereas rural areas are predominantly Republican. The suburbs, once reliably conservative, have shifted towards more liberal stances, contributing to the state’s status as a swing region.

In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania by approximately 80,000 votes, compared to Donald Trump‘s win by about 40,000 votes in 2016. Current polls depict a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Harris reportedly leading by a slim margin, according to a 538/ABC News poll tracker.

Both Harris and Trump have heavily focused their campaigns on Pennsylvania, investing heavily in advertising and making frequent visits. Harris recently introduced her vice-presidential pick, Tim Walz, in a Philadelphia rally and highlighted economic plans in Pittsburgh. Conversely, Trump held a significant rally in Butler and visited Scranton and Reading, emphasizing grassroots mobilization.

Former Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell emphasized the importance of political surrogates in reaching voters across the state’s vast regions. Harris aims to secure dominance in urban areas and suburbs to counteract Trump’s rural support. Her strategy involves appealing to moderate and cross-party voters, including disenchanted Republicans.

Trump’s campaign is focused on energizing conservative voters and targeting traditionally Democratic demographics, such as blue-collar workers and African American men, areas where he has seen growing support. Farah Jimenez, a conservative education activist, suggests that Trump’s efforts among these groups could become pivotal.

The 2024 election’s outcome in Pennsylvania may not be known immediately, reminiscent of the 2020 delay due to mail-in ballots. With over 217,000 mail-in ballots received so far, Pennsylvania law stipulates that counting cannot begin until election night. The presence of military and overseas ballots introduces additional uncertainty in a close race.

Experts like Craig Snyder anticipate potential legal challenges and recounts if the results are narrowly contested, urging stakeholders to brace for a protracted counting process. Pennsylvania’s role remains central in determining the next occupant of the White House.