Rain Returns to Southern California as Climate Change Fuels Fire Risks

LOS ANGELES, Calif. – Rain is expected to return to Southern California next week, bringing relief after a dry spell that has heightened wildfire risks. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts precipitation from Tuesday to Thursday, with rainfall amounts ranging from a quarter of an inch to an inch, potentially more in higher elevations. However, this system will be warmer and less intense than the recent storm that caused debris flows and flash floods in areas like Malibu and the Palisades.

“The last system was a really cold low-pressure system, and because it was cold, it brought thunderstorms and convective showers that triggered higher rainfall rates,” said NWS Meteorologist Lisa Phillips. “This warmer system won’t pose the same risks for debris flows.”

Last week’s storm prompted flash flood warnings and forced the closure of Topanga Canyon Boulevard due to mud and debris. While next week’s rain is expected to be milder, there is still a risk of moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas.

Meanwhile, a recent report by World Weather Attribution highlights the growing influence of climate change on Southern California’s wildfire risks. The study found that human-caused global warming has made the hot, dry, and windy conditions that fueled recent fires 35% more likely. The region now experiences an average of 23 additional “dry season” days annually compared to preindustrial times, increasing the likelihood of fire-friendly conditions.

“This was a perfect storm when it comes to conditions for fire disasters,” said John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at the University of California, Merced, who contributed to the report. “The climate, weather, and built environment all played a role.”

The report analyzed how climate change has intensified the Fire Weather Index, which measures temperature, humidity, and wind speeds. Researchers found that extreme fire conditions, which now occur once every 17 years, would have been expected only once every 23 years without climate change.

However, the study also noted that wildfires in Southern California are influenced by multiple factors, including human activity. “Fire in Southern California is highly complex,” Abatzoglou said. “It’s a combination of climate, land use, and a large population that increases ignition risks.”

The role of climate change in intensifying Santa Ana winds, a key driver of wildfires, remains unclear. Some research suggests these winds may weaken as the climate warms, while other studies indicate they could persist or even intensify during colder months.

As Southern California braces for more rain, the region continues to grapple with the dual challenges of extreme weather and wildfire risks, both exacerbated by a changing climate.