Spanberger’s Lead Over Earle-Sears Grows in Virginia Gubernatorial Race

ROANOKE, Va. — In a surprising turn of events, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has surged to a 15-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in a new poll released Tuesday, suggesting a shift in voter sentiment in the lead-up to Virginia‘s gubernatorial election in November 2025. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College (IPOR) reported that 39% of voters would choose Spanberger if the election occurred today, compared to 24% for Earle-Sears.

This latest poll marks a distinct change from results last September, where the candidates were closer in their standings. A significant 32% of those surveyed remain undecided, indicating a crucial segment of the electorate is still forming opinions on the candidates. Harry Wilson, interim director of IPOR, noted that many voters may still be reflecting on the previous year’s elections, making it difficult to gauge true public sentiment.

“Still hungover with joy or grief from the elections of 2024, Virginians haven’t yet focused on November 2025,” Wilson commented. He emphasized that Spanberger’s 15-point lead puts her in a favorable position, yet cautioned that there is still substantial time for shifts in voter allegiance.

The poll’s findings crown Spanberger’s campaign as the most favorable since polling began for the race, though it’s essential to recognize the possibility of fluctuations as voters begin to pay more attention to the ongoing political landscape. The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 4.66%, reinforcing the need for caution in interpreting results at this stage.

The dynamic of the race has changed amidst the backdrop of Donald Trump‘s recent administration, which appears to be impacting voter attitudes toward Republican candidates negatively, especially in a state Trump has lost in prior elections. The Roanoke College poll indicates a growing disapproval of Trump, with 59% of respondents criticizing his performance to date, which could hinder Earle-Sears’s campaign.

Spanberger, a former U.S. representative for Virginia’s 7th District, has seen her support increase, rising from a 10-point advantage in a poll conducted last month. Concurrently, Earle-Sears’s backing highlights the challenge she faces in consolidating support among Republican voters. Former Delegate David LaRock’s recent announcement of a primary challenge to Earle-Sears could further complicate her campaign strategies.

In addition to the candidates’ standings, the overall sentiment regarding the direction of the state and country was addressed in the poll. While 51% of Virginians believe Virginia is heading in the right direction, overall, just 31% feel optimistic about the country, indicating a disconnect between perceptions at the state and national levels.

The Roanoke College poll also surveys sentiments surrounding immigration and Trump’s policies, showing nuanced perspectives among voters regarding undocumented immigrants. While a majority favors creating more opportunities for legal immigration, a split exists over deportation views, emphasizing complex attitudes towards immigration reform.

As the political season unfolds, candidates’ associations—most notably Earle-Sears’s with Gov. Glenn Youngkin—will prove pivotal. Polling shows that Youngkin remains a popular figure, with a 53% approval rating, presenting a challenge for Earle-Sears to maintain her momentum alongside her party’s national image.

The shifting political landscape in Virginia as indicated by these recent polling results will likely be pivotal in shaping strategies for both parties in the lead-up to the November election, reinforcing that the race is wide open and volatile.