Trump Proposes $2,000 Tariff Rebate Checks Amid Economic Uncertainty

New York — President Donald Trump has announced plans to issue $2,000 tariff rebate checks to moderate-income Americans next year, potentially providing a financial boost for millions. “We’ve taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends…probably the middle of next year,” he stated on Monday.

However, analysts caution that the proposal may not be feasible. Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, expressed skepticism, saying, “It’s highly unlikely there is some sort of stimulus check sent out next year.”

Prediction platform Polymarket shows that bettors are also doubtful about the checks being delivered by March 31, 2026. Concerns arise from various factors, including projected tariff revenues falling short of the costs associated with the rebate program.

The Tax Foundation projects that Trump’s tariffs could generate $158.4 billion in 2025 and $207.5 billion in 2026, but the rebate program could exceed this amount significantly, depending on eligibility criteria. If checks are limited to those earning less than $100,000, the program could cost approximately $279.8 billion, leaving a substantial gap if based on tariff revenues.

Furthermore, Congress must approve any rebate legislation, and obtaining bipartisan support could prove challenging given the current debt levels exceeding $34 trillion.

Critics, including some former Trump advisors, argue that such rebates might stoke inflation rather than alleviate it. Stephen Moore, a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity, advised against direct payments, saying they “only stimulate inflation” and suggested that any tariff revenue should instead be used to lower income taxes.

Economic uncertainty persists as the U.S. grapples with rising inflation and a challenging job market. If these conditions worsen, the administration may face pressure to implement direct payments as a tool to mitigate economic downturns.

“If trouble in the job market intensifies, the White House could argue direct payments are necessary to prevent a recession,” Lincicome said. “This is a break-the-glass, use in case of emergency tool.”