Ukraine Gains Potential Intelligence Edge After Downing of Russian Stealth Drone

The recent downing of a Russian S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth drone over Ukraine represents a notable setback for Russia and a potential intelligence advantage for Ukraine and its allies, including NATO. This incident marks a significant blow to Moscow’s advanced drone program, which has been in development for more than a decade.

Footage and images circulating on social media over the weekend showed the drone leaving a trail of smoke, eventually crashing in the city of Kostyantynivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The exact mission and cause of the crash remain unclear, with speculation ranging from a technical failure to a friendly-fire incident, as suggested by various Russian sources and analysts.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a conflict analysis think tank, noted that some Russian accounts have posited a friendly-fire incident, potentially involving Russia’s own Su-57 aircraft. On the ground in Ukraine, photos have surfaced showing Ukrainian soldiers examining the wreckage of the high-end drone, which could allow Western engineers to analyze its advanced technology.

Samuel Bendett, an advisor with the Center for Naval Analyses, pointed out the strategic significance of the loss. He indicated that the situation represents a “significant win” for Western intelligence, as the UAV could reveal insights into Russia’s stealth capabilities and potential weaknesses. Given the high cost and limited numbers of the S-70 drones, this development could also hinder the Russian program’s progress.

The S-70, developed since the early 2010s, bears a resemblance to the US military’s RQ-170 Sentinel and is touted for its stealth capabilities. However, analysts including Bendett have expressed skepticism over Russia’s stealth technology, noting that previous examinations of Russian equipment have revealed shortcomings.

This incident places the Russian defense leadership in a predicament, as they must decide whether to continue investing in costly stealth technology that may be compromised, or focus resources on less expensive unmanned aircraft. Presently, Russia and Ukraine both heavily rely on drones in the ongoing conflict, though primarily smaller, less expensive ones rather than large-scale models like the S-70.