NOAA Predicts Above-Normal Hurricane Season for 2025

GRETNA, La. — Experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have announced their predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting significant activity. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, may see 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 of those expected to become hurricanes and 3 to 5 projected as major hurricanes.

According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance of above-normal hurricane activities this season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of below-normal activity. NOAA officials expressed a high level of confidence, providing a 70% certainty in these forecasts.

“With the improvements in our forecasting models, we are better equipped than ever before to deliver timely storm forecasts and warnings,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. The agency’s outlook comes as the region approaches the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Factors contributing to this forecast include warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, predictions of weak wind shear, and increased activity from the West African Monsoon, a key factor in the development of Atlantic hurricanes. This combination of conditions typically fosters tropical storm formation.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized the importance of staying prepared, stating, “We have never been more prepared for hurricane season with our advanced weather models and tracking systems.”

The 2024 season was noted as particularly severe, with 11 hurricanes and significant storm impacts, leading to several names being retired due to the storms’ severity.

NOAA highlights its ongoing improvements in storm forecast communication and recovery efforts. As the agency gears up for the 2025 hurricane season, it aims to enhance public awareness and readiness for potential storm threats.