XRP May Tank 35%, Analysts Predict Market Correction

NEW YORK, NY — Analysts warn that XRP might drop by 35%, possibly revisiting the $1.35 to $1.60 range. This prediction is based on recent on-chain and technical metrics, raising alarms for traders.

Traders who purchased XRP before the November 2024 rally, when the token was under $0.50, are currently cashing in on profits, averaging $68.8 million per day over the past week. These early investors have seen returns exceeding 300%, indicating significant profit-taking behavior.

The trends in trader behavior resemble those observed before XRP’s 2017 peak. Back then, XRP skyrocketed from around $0.005 to over $2.50 in less than a year, prompting profit-taking among high-margin holders just before the market peaked, followed by a dramatic downturn.

Current indicators suggest that XRP could experience a similar fate. Analysts are particularly concerned about a heavy concentration of newer holders, leading to a top-heavy market structure that may be more vulnerable to sharp sell-offs.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether tokens are being sold at a profit or a loss, shows that holders of 3 to 6 months of XRP are experiencing a steady decrease, while other holders have begun to stabilize since April.

As of June 21, the average purchase price for the 3- to 6-month cohort was $2.28, with the 6- to 12-month group averaging $1.35. With XRP currently trading around $2.14, newer holders are only slightly above breakeven, while the longer-term holders may face downward pressure if the price dips further.

Should XRP decline as predicted, it might fall to between $1.50 and $1.60. Additionally, a retest of the $1.35 level could put even more pressure on these holders.

The market’s current realized price is near a critical support level at $1.30, reinforced by a descending triangle pattern that suggests further bearish potential. However, a strong bounce from the 50-week exponential moving average could change this trajectory and provide hope for a recovery.