Social Security’s 2026 COLA Estimated at 2.7%, Experts Say

Washington, D.C. — The Social Security Administration will announce the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 next month, but forecasts are already predicting an increase that could affect millions of beneficiaries.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates that the COLA will rise to 2.7%, which is an increase from the 2.5% received by retirees in 2025. However, this adjustment is still lower than what some analysts believe is necessary to keep pace with inflation.

Shannon Benton, executive director of TSCL, remarked, “While a higher COLA would be welcome because their monthly benefits will increase, many will be disappointed. Our research shows that many seniors believe the COLA does not adequately capture the inflation they experience.”

Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, is slightly more optimistic and projects a 2.8% increase. She noted, “Although a slightly lower COLA of 2.7% is possible, there would have to be virtually no inflation growth at all in September.”

The adjustments are calculated based on the change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) between the third quarter of the current year and the same period from the previous year. The official COLA will be disclosed on October 15, 2025, using data from September 2025.

If the estimates hold true, the average monthly benefit check would increase from $2,008 to approximately $2,062, a change of about $54. Johnson added, “That’s apt to look pretty underwhelming to most Social Security recipients, especially with potential increases in Medicare Part B premiums.”

There are several other adjustments for Social Security in 2026, including an increase in the full retirement age and the maximum taxable earnings limit, which is projected to rise to $183,600 next year.

As the system continues to adapt to economic changes, it’s essential for recipients to stay informed about how such adjustments may impact their financial wellbeing.