Investors Face Challenges Evaluating Quantum Computing Stocks

NEW YORK, NY — Investors in quantum computing stocks are experiencing significant volatility as they struggle to determine the value of these emerging companies. Major players like Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. are racing to develop technologies that could potentially solve problems beyond the reach of today’s computers, possibly with the help of artificial intelligence.

This new technology could revolutionize various sectors, from cryptography to drug discovery. The buzz surrounding these companies has led to remarkable stock price increases, with some shares soaring by 100% or more this year.

“All of a sudden, it feels like science fiction has moved into the world of real technological possibility,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs, which manages the Defiance Quantum fund.

Steve Sosnick, chief markets strategist at Interactive Brokers, voiced concerns about the potential overvaluation of these stocks, asking, “What is the right price to pay for a piece of the future?” He highlighted the dramatic rise in Rigetti Computing’s share price, which jumped from $1.06 to a recent high of $58.

As of late October, Rigetti became the fourth most traded stock among Interactive Brokers clients, surpassing trading volumes of major giants like Apple and Amazon. Currently, Rigetti shares are priced around $38, boasting a market valuation over 1,000 times its sales, whereas AI chipmaker Nvidia trades at about 50 times sales.

Despite the soaring stock prices, Rigetti’s operations remain unprofitable, with recent financial disclosures showing losses, though a change in asset values led to a profit in the first quarter of 2025.

Christopher Poch, CEO of Promethium Advisors, likened the valuation scenario to a “magic act,” pointing out the contrast between Rigetti’s $13 billion market cap and its projected revenue of only $22 million. LSEG earnings consensus forecasting suggests Rigetti will earn $21.9 million in 2026.

While companies like IBM and Alphabet are also investing in quantum computing, the industry has focused on four main stocks referred to as the “Quantum 4,” according to Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth. However, spokespeople from Rigetti, IonQ, and Quantum Computing did not respond to requests for comments regarding their valuations, while D-Wave’s representative declined to discuss its stock performance.

Despite high valuations, some analysts continue to recommend these stocks. David Williams from Benchmark Equity Research has given Rigetti a “buy” rating, increasing his price target to $50 per share from $20. He noted, however, that valuing quantum companies is “more of an art than science.”

On Monday, B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis downgraded his rating on Rigetti to “Neutral,” citing concerns over its “premium valuation” alongside potential revenue impacts from U.S. government shutdowns, while still raising his price target to $42 from $35. Rigetti’s stock fell nearly 7% to $36.43 on Tuesday.

Interest from banks and corporations in the field is evident, with JPMorgan Chase recently announcing plans to invest up to $10 billion in critical sectors, including quantum computing. Additionally, IBM and HSBC reported a collaboration utilizing quantum technology to create a new algorithmic bond trading platform, stirring further excitement.

A U.S. Department of Commerce official stated that the government is “not currently negotiating” any arrangements concerning quantum computing investments. While quantum stocks have enjoyed immense gains, experts urge caution due to the nascent stage of the technology. Rick Bradt, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, remarked, “It’s the holy grail of computing; the use case is undeniable, and undeniably awesome, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the timing.”