Donald Trump Regains Lead in RealClearPolitics Polling Average Against Kamala Harris

In the latest developments in the 2024 presidential election, President Donald Trump has retaken the lead in the national polling aggregate by RealClearPolitics, marking a significant shift in the race against Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris. This change comes after Harris had held a narrow lead in the RCP average since early August, which peaked at 2.2 points in early October.

As of October 27, Trump is leading by a very narrow margin of 0.2 points in the RCP average. This resurgence is reminiscent of Trump’s past election cycles, where he was consistently underpolled in the early to mid-October periods but saw significant gains closer to election day. In 2020, Trump was underpolled by 4.7 points, and in 2016, he was underpolled by 4.6 points at their highest margins.

Trump’s late-stage polling gains have been attributed to his ability to be a “strong closer,” making impactful moves in the final stages of the campaign. However, some observers suggest that pollsters may be adjusting their numbers to avoid underestimating Trump’s support as election day approaches. This theory is supported by Atlas Intel, a polling firm that has been highly accurate in recent U.S. elections and has consistently shown Trump leading in the popular vote by 2-3 points since July.

In addition to the national polling average, Trump is also leading in all seven swing states according to RCP averages. He has made significant gains in other states that were not previously considered contested, such as Virginia and New Hampshire.

The ongoing polling dynamics highlight the intense and unpredictable nature of the 2024 presidential election, with both candidates and their supporters closely watching the polls as the election draws near.