Escalating Tensions: Israel Prepares to Retaliate Against Iran Amid Recent Attacks

The tensions between Israel and Iran have reached a critical point following a series of recent attacks and retaliatory threats. On October 1, Iran launched approximately 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) described as a response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and other military actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israel has vowed to retaliate against these attacks, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and military leaders affirming their commitment to counterattack. Netanyahu stated, “We will adhere to our established principle: whoever assaults us, we will counterattack”.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has instructed the Iranian military to prepare various response scenarios to potential Israeli attacks. According to Iranian officials, the extent of Iran’s retaliation would depend on the severity of Israel’s actions. If Israel targets only military sites or weapons depots, Iran might refrain from retaliation. However, if Israel attacks oil, energy, or nuclear facilities, or carries out targeted assassinations, Iran is likely to launch a significant response, including up to 1,000 ballistic missiles and attacks by Iranian proxy groups.

Analysts suggest that Israel may exploit the current distraction of the U.S. with its upcoming elections to strike Iran without facing immediate U.S. intervention. Michael Regent, a senior Middle East analyst at the Hudson Institute, noted that Israel is likely to capitalize on this favorable atmosphere to maximize its objectives.

A former IDF general, Brig. Gen. (Res.) Amir Avivi, predicted that Israel will eventually target Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities. Avivi believes that while Israel may not target nuclear sites in the immediate operation, it will persist until those sites are neutralized.

The international community is closely watching the developments, with the U.S. reaffirming its support for Israel while opposing strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. President Biden has stated that the U.S. is “fully supportive of Israel” but does not support retaliatory strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites.