Exit Polls Predict BJP Comeback in Delhi After 27 Years

New Delhi, Feb 6, 2025 With just two days left until the results of the Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls have ignited heated debate, predicting a significant comeback for the BJP after a 27-year hiatus. The polls suggest a potential end to the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) decade-long reign in the capital. However, AAP leaders have dismissed these predictions, citing a history of pollsters underestimating their performance.

Multiple exit polls released on Wednesday, shortly after voting concluded, largely projected a BJP victory, signaling a major setback for AAP. The party, which has been in power for over a decade and remains a formidable political force, has countered these projections, arguing that pollsters have a consistent track record of misjudging their success.

AAP national spokesperson Reena Gupta highlighted past election trends, emphasizing that exit polls had underestimated the party’s performance in 2013, 2015, and 2020. “Every time, AAP was predicted to win fewer seats than it actually did,” she stated. Senior leader Sanjay Singh went further, dismissing the projections as “surveys by massage and spa companies.”

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal echoed this sentiment on X, stating, “These predictions are meant to shape political sentiment and weaken our party by causing defections.”

The AAP’s skepticism is rooted in historical data. In 2013, exit polls largely favored the BJP, predicting an average of 35 seats, just short of a majority, while forecasting 17 seats each for AAP and Congress. However, the actual results saw AAP win 28 seats, BJP 32, and Congress a mere 8. Today’s Chanakya provided the closest estimate, predicting AAP would win 31 seats. AAP, propelled by the India Against Corruption movement, formed a short-lived government with Congress support before resigning over the Jan Lokpal Bill after 48 days.

Six exit polls in 2015 forecast an AAP victory but failed to grasp its scale. While the average prediction gave AAP 45 seats, the party stunned observers by winning 67. BJP scored just 3 seats, and Congress was left with no legislators in the assembly. Axis My India estimated AAP’s victory at 53 seats, while India TV-CVoter predicted only 39. Most polls also overestimated BJP’s chances, projecting over 20 seats.

By 2020, exit polls were more aligned with AAP’s dominance but still fell short of the final numbers. On average, they predicted 52 seats for AAP and 17 for BJP, while the actual results saw AAP win 62 and BJP secure 8. Congress, once again, failed to win a single seat. India Today-Axis My India provided the closest estimate, forecasting 59-68 seats for AAP. Meanwhile, Sudarshan News gave BJP its highest projected tally at 24-28 seats, though the party ultimately fell far below that mark.