Gen X Voting Trends: Influences and Political Alignments

A recent poll conducted by the Arizona-based firm HighGround, in collaboration with the local news outlet Arizona’s Family, has highlighted a noticeable trend among Generation X voters, indicating a preference towards Republican candidates, particularly former President Donald Trump. The poll, however, has faced scrutiny for its accuracy due to its demographic breakdown, showing precision to decimal points, which some experts claim is misleading.

In the 2020 presidential election in Arizona, results depicted a varied political lean among age groups: while voters aged 18-29 largely supported Joe Biden with a +31 margin, those aged 30-44 leaned slightly towards Trump with a +4 margin. Interestingly, the 45-64 age group favored Biden, while the 65+ category showed a near-even distribution, with Trump receiving a marginal lead. This distribution has led to questions about the political leanings of Gen X, typically those born between 1965 and 1980, now between the ages of 43 and 59.

One theory explaining Gen X’s political affiliations points to the influence of leaded gasoline on their development. According to a study referenced by data journalist Christopher Ingraham, over 170 million Americans experienced high exposure to lead in their early childhood, primarily due to the prevalent use of leaded gasoline up until its ban in 1996. The study estimates a significant impact on IQ levels across generations, particularly those born in the 1960s and 1970s.

Another explanation suggests that the political climate and leaders during formative years play a significant role in shaping generational political ideologies. For Gen X, the administration of Ronald Reagan, a figure associated with conservative politics, may have influenced their leanings. Comparatively, millennials grew up during the presidency of Barack Obama, known for his progressive policies, influencing their predominantly liberal stance.

This framework, however, is not without exceptions. The Silent Generation and Baby Boomers have seen significant shifts in political alignment over the decades, particularly influenced by historical events such as the civil rights movement.

While Gen X’s proclivity towards Republican ideals, particularly those embodied by Trump, can be argued based on multiple factors such as social, economic, and historical influences, experts urge caution. They advise against oversimplification, noting the diversity within generational cohorts and the varying influences at play, including personal, environmental, and societal factors that shape voting behavior.